Oxford house prices remain subdued

House price growth in key British cities has fallen from 7.4% in July 2016 to 5.3% but some locations continue to see above average prices rises, the latest index shows.

Oxford prices achieved year on year (YOY) growth of just 1.2% in July, and are marginally down overall over the last quarter (-0.1%).

The biggest annual growth was in Birmingham with a rise of 8%, followed by Manchester up 7.1%, Nottingham up 6.0% and Southampton up 6.5%, according to the data from Hometrack.

In Aberdeen, the market has not recovered from a downturn due to falling oil prices and the city has seen negative growth for two years. Prices are 16% lower than they were in 2014 while year on year they are down 3% and month on month down 0.3%.

In London house price deflation has bottomed out with an increase in the annual rate of growth to 2.8% and month on month growth of 0.9%.  With Oxford increasingly mirroring the capital, albeit with a delay of 6 to 9 months, the slight recovery in London prices is to be welcomed, and may point to Oxford avoiding falling into negative territory YoY.

The index confirms that pressure on prices is greatest in the most expensive parts of London where demand has been weaker since the end of 2014. These inner London markets are registering small year on year price falls of up to 2%. The downward pricing pressure is less evident in the lowest value markets of London which have registered above average growth and price inflation of over 3%.

Looking ahead, the report says that there remains a clear divide between the prospects for house price growth in regional cities, where affordability levels are attractive, and the prospects for house price growth in London and other high value cities in southern England such as Oxford.

‘We expect house price growth in regional cities to be sustained at current levels for the rest of 2017. London is set for a sustained period of low nominal house price growth and lower sales volumes,’ it adds.

Oxford rent rises predicted after brief lull

Rents in Oxford for new tenancies fell by 0.4% in the last 12 months (i.e. not existing tenants experiencing rental increases from their existing landlord). When we compare that current rate with the historical rental inflation in Oxford, an interesting pattern emerges:

·       2016 - Rental Inflation in Oxford was 5.1%

·       2015 - Rental Inflation in Oxford was 9.4%

·       2014 - Rental Inflation in Oxford was 3.2%

The reason behind this change depends on which side of the demand/supply equation you are looking from. On the demand side (from the tenants point of view) there is the uncertainty of Brexit and the fact that salaries are not keeping up with inflation for the first time in three years. Critically, this means tenants have less disposable income to pay their rent. As an aside, it is interesting to note that nationally, rent accounts for 29% of a tenant’s take home pay (Denton House).

On the supply side of the equation (landlords point of view) Brexit also creates uncertainty. However, the biggest issue was a massive upsurge of new rental properties coming on to the market in late 2016, caused by George Osborne’s new 3% stamp duty tax for landlords in the first part of 2016. This meant a lot of new rental properties were ‘dropped’ on to the rental market all at the same time. The greater choice of rental properties for tenants curtailed rental growth/inflation. A slight softening of Oxford property prices has compounded this.  Figures from The Bank of England suggested that first time buyers rose over the last 12 months as some were more inclined to buy instead of rent. Together, these factors played a part in the ongoing moderation of rental growth.

The lead up to the General Election in May didn’t help: after all people don’t like doubt and uncertainty.  Whether it be ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ Brexit negotiations (and with the Election result the Tories might have to be ‘softer’ on those negotiations) the simple fact is, we aren’t building enough properties for us to live in. Both in Oxford, the South East and the wider UK, long-term population trends imply that rents will soon once again be growing faster than inflation again. Look at the projections by the Office of National Statistics.

Tenants will still require a vibrant and growing rental sector to deliver them housing options in a timely manner. As the population grows in Oxford, any restriction to the supply of rental properties (brought about by poor returns for landlords) cannot be in the long-term best interest of tenants. Simply put, rents must go up!  But, with rents already accounting for 29% of a tenants’ disposable income, the ability for most tenants to absorb a rent increase does exist.  It is for this reason, that I believe Government policy which is increasing costs for landlords (removal of mortgage interest rate relief; stamp duty surcharge; and, ban on fees charged to tenants) is short-sighted and poorly considered.

What is happening with Oxford house prices?

In my article last week, I promised to widen the net of my research to see whether there was a noticeable trend in the way house prices around Oxford are currently performing.  The table below summarises the findings of my research, using Rightmove data for houses that sold and were listed over the last 12 months.

The recent reports by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) states that the slowdown in the housing market is spreading from London to other parts of SE England.  It also observes that the most expensive homes are particularly likely to have seen cuts in asking price before being sold.  RICS points to a series of changes to tax policy which has particularly impacted buy to let investment, and a continued lack of new-build properties weighing on the market.  Other commentators have pointed to stamp duty discouraging older owner-occupiers from down-sizing as another drag on house availability.

Looking at Oxford specifically, there is evidence that the most expensive parts of Oxford are under-performing.  The notable exception being Cumnor, where some new build and strong activity have impacted the overall trend for that part of town. Whilst overall, there is a stronger trend of house price growth in the parts of Oxford which are below City average values, it is a very mixed picture.  Headington, Blackbird Leys and Greater Leys have out-performed the City average whilst Wolvercote, Marston and Cowley are close to the overall average, with Botley and Barton performing particularly poorly when compared to the prior 12-month period.

Of course, when looking at data like this it is important to consider the local factors that could have affected housing prices.  For example, Wolvercote has recovered from a negative position 12 months ago, reflecting the completion of road works that had previously dragged on prices.  Barton, may well be experiencing some drag due to the new houses coming on stream, causing people to delay their move waiting for the new stock to come on stream, or avoiding the area due to the works.

Overall, there is some evidence that it will be the top-end of the property market in Oxford that will feel the pinch earliest.  And, as I have commented over the last several months, Oxford is experiencing a 19% reduction in house sale transactions, and continues to suffer from an under-supply of new build homes.  There are some vendors who are also disregarding the price sensitivity in the market, holding-out for unrealistic offers, in a market that has become far more price sensitive.

Across these parts of Oxford the average increase inhouse prices over the last 7 years is 14.9% which rises to 18% if Boars Hill is removed from the calculation.  Oxford as a whole has averaged 20% increases since 2014.

In summary, it is far too soon to panic, but vendors need to be realistic with the price they offer making sure they benchmark well with comparable properties on the market.

Oxford house prices over the last 12 months show postcode variation

Over the last month I have been asked by regular readers to help them understand what is going on with Oxford property prices, with several asking specifically ‘should I invest in Oxford right now?’.

You can be forgiven for being confused, the property news headlines can be contradictory on the same day!  Recently 3 different national newspapers use the same report to variously claim prices were recovering and recording growth, house prices were falling for the 4^th month in a row, and house price growth was sustained but weak!

The only way to get to the truth is to look at specific data for specific postcodes.  Using Rightmove data, I have looked some key Oxford postcodes to establish what is the true picture.

Overall property prices for properties sold on Rightmove over the last 12 months are 6% higher than for the prior 12-month period and 20% up since 2014.  That means anyone who has invested in Oxford property since 2014 has achieved a steady capital growth return.  So that’s great!

But, the true picture is more ‘granular’ than that.  By looking at comparable data for just 4 postcode segments (Headington; Cowley; Summertown; and, Jericho) it can be seen that the value of Oxford properties varies widely by location, as does the performance in terms of capital return.

Cowley has offered the best overall return, reflecting the performance of the City as a whole closely – prices are up 5% o the prior 12-month period and 20% up since 2014.  Cowley also continues to offer the best value for money overall.  At the other end of the spectrum is Jericho, where prices over the last 12-months are down 10% on th prior 12-month period and just 6% up on 2014.

The analysis points to markedly lower growth in property values in the expensive parts of Oxford, and relatively strong performance in those areas that offer relatively strong value for money.

For my article next week, I will expand this analysis to other postcode segments in and around Oxford, in the hope that it will further enlighten us all on where in Oxford the best returns in terms of capital value might be found.

To date, only the most expensive parts of Oxford are suffering real decreases in achieved prices, with Jericho and Summertown appearing ‘soft’ by comparison.  However, for landlords capital appreciation is just part of the story – rental yield also needs to be factored-in to calculate true return on investment.  Again, I will look to unpick this too over the coming weeks to give owner-occupiers and buy to let landlords understand the Oxford market a little better

There’s never been a better time to remortgage

The number of mortgage products is continuing to rise, with the number of deals on the market having increased by 61% in just five years, according to Moneyfacts.

Since April 2009, the number of products on the mortgage market hit an all-time low of 1,209. The volume of live deals now stands at 4,657, which is up on 3,814 products in August 2016 and almost 2,000 higher than the number of products on the market five years ago.

This month’s boost to product numbers means there have been 15 months of consecutive increases in residential mortgages, according to the Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report, which provides an in-depth monthly review of changing mortgage trends, including all the relevant facts on the UK’s residential and buy-to-let markets.

 Moneyfacts observes: “The numbers this month were boosted by several lenders entering the three-year fixed rate market, which saw the number of three-year fixed rate deals increase by 48 products to 439.

The two-year fixed rate sector has seen heavy competition, causing providers to look elsewhere. The three-year fixed rate market offers providers an opportunity that some have used to branch out.

Widespread talk of a base rate rise means that borrowers are starting to look at their options to protect themselves from a potential rise in monthly repayments. Since a five-year fixed rate can be too long for some, a three-year deal can bridge the gap for those wary of fixing for longer.

The average three-year fixed rate is 2.54% in August, so borrowers will need to decide whether the extra year’s security is worth a 0.31% premium compared to the average two-year rate of 2.23%.

Any readers who have not yet reviewed their mortgage arrangements, should do so without delay.  Too often we Brits have a misplaced sense of loyalty to our mortgage lender, instead of recognising the risk of increased costs as Bank of England rates begin to rise.  If you don’t know who to call, please email me on info@oxfordpropertyblog.co.uk and I will happily make a referral to London & Country who have access to the UK’s largest panel of lenders.  L&C offer a no-commitment telephone based assessment, which will enable you to determine your own position.  L&C can assist owner-occupiers and buy to let landlords with mortgage products to suit their needs.

Buy to let mortgage rates continue to fall

Research from independent market monitor Moneyfacts shows that the average two-year fixed BTL rate has fallen by 0.31 per cent in one year, and even though the pace of the fall has slowed in recent months, the market has now recovered from the significant drop in products that was seen at the start of this year.

The number of BTL mortgage products now available has risen from 1,408 in January this year to 1,610 now - a rise of around 15 per cent in just six months.

As regular readers will know, I have been encouraging Oxford buy to let landlords to consider re-mortgaging for several months now.  The market for BT mortgages has been improving with the range of products increasing and the level of interest rates falling.  At a time when landlord costs have been rising, and look set to continue to rise, this is a way for landlords to reduce their monthly costs and lock-in the historic low interest rates for years to come.

Too many Oxford landlords have a misplaced sense of loyalty to their current lender, instead of grasping the opportunity to look after their own interests.

For any reader interested in discussing the opportunities for re-mortgaging I would be happy to make a referral to a registered and regulated mortgage broker for a no-commitment telephone assessment to determine whether you could save money by re-mortgaging.