Oxford Homeowners Are Only Moving Every 18 Years (part 2)

In the credit crunch of 2008/9 the rate of home moving plunged to its then lowest level ever. In 2008 and 2009 the rate at which a typical house would change hands slumped to only once every 17.5 and 15.4 years respectively.

The biggest reason being that confidence was low and many homeowners didn’t want to sell their home as Oxford property prices plunged after the onset of the financial crisis. Between 2013 and 2015, the rate at which people moved increased in Oxford, yet last year, it dropped again to a new lowest level of once every 18 years, meaning as a City, there has been a 44.84% drop in moves by homeowners in Oxford, compared to 15 years ago.

So why aren’t Oxford homeowners moving as much as they did?

In last week’s article I talked about how ‘real’ incomes and savings have been dropping. Another issue is the long-term failure to build sufficient new-build homes of the right type. 

Back in the 1960’s and 1970’s, as a country, we were building on average 300,000 and 350,000 households a year. The Barker Review a few years ago said that for the UK to stand still and keep up with housing demand (inflated by a number of factors including: immigration, people living longer, marital divorce, a 50% increase in the number of households with a single person since the 1980’s) we needed to build 240,000 households a year. Over the last few years, we have only been building between 135,000 and 150,000 households a year. In Oxford just 1% of property sold is new build (just 7 properties sold per month on average over the last 12 months).

As the UK Population gets older, there is no getting away from the fact that a maturing population is less mobile.  Those retired people who want to move are finding there is no suitable smaller option available to them in the place they want to live.

So, what does this mean for Oxford homeowners and landlords?

Many of the older generation in Oxford are stuck in property that is simply too big for their needs. The fact is that, in Oxford, nearly five out of every ten (or 46.5 per cent) owned houses has two or more spare bedrooms; or to be more exact ...

12,470 of the 26,832 owned households in the Oxford

area have two or more spare bedrooms.

As young families struggle to move up the housing ladder, with those young families bursting at the seams in homes too small for them, we have a severe case of under-occupation amongst the older generation – retired people staying put in their bigger homes, with a profusion of spare bedrooms with a dearth of smaller alternative properties available to them.

Many commentators have suggested the Government should give tax breaks to allow the older generation to downsize, yet in a recent White Paper on housing published just weeks before the General Election, there was no reference to any detailed policies to inspire or support them to do so.

This means that there could be an opportunity for Oxford buy to let landlords to secure larger properties to rent out, as the demand for them will surely grow over the coming years. As for homeowners; well those in the lower and middle Oxford market will find it a balanced sellers/buyers market, but will find it a buyers’ market in the upper price bands.  Despite a 17% reduction in completed transactions, prices have risen 7% over the last 12 months, confirming a supply constrained market.

Slowing Oxford Property Market? Yes and No!

Being a buy-to-let landlord in Oxford is a balancing act many do well. Talking to several Oxford landlords, they are conscious of their tenants’ capacity and ability to pay the rent but feel with their own costs rising, there is now pressure for rents to rise.

Historic evidence suggests that the rents new tenants have to pay typically increase during the summer months. June, July & August is a time when renters like to move, demand surges and the normal supply and demand seesaw mean tenants are normally prepared to pay more to secure the property they want to live in.

Rents in Oxford on average for new tenants moving in have risen 0.9% for the month, taking overall annual Oxford rents 0.9% lower for the year

However, several Oxford landlords have expressed their apprehensions about a slowing of the housing market. I personally feel their negativity may be misplaced.

The other side of the coin for property investing is capital values (which are of interest to all the homeowners in Oxford as well as Oxford buy-to-let landlords).  I believe the Oxford property market has been trying to find some level of equilibrium since the New Year.  According to the Land Registry

Property Values in Oxford are 7.49% higher than they were 12 months ago, despite a drop of 0.07% last month

Yet, I would take those figures with a pinch of salt as they reflect the sales of Oxford properties that took place in early Spring 2017 which are only now exchanging and completing during the summer months.

The reality is the number of properties that are on the market in Oxford today has risen by 41.02% since the New Year at a time when the total number of transactions is down by 17% which will have a dampening effect on property values. As tenants have less choice, buyers now have more choice and that will temper Oxford property prices as we head towards 2018.

Be you a homeowner or landlord, if you are planning to sell your Oxford property in the short term, it is crucial, especially with the rise in the number of properties on the market, that you realistically price your property when you bring it to the market.  With the increase in choice of properties, the balance of power during negotiation generally sways towards the buyer.

6,564,678 People use Oxford Train Station a year - How does that affect the Oxford Property Market?

It might surprise you that it isn’t always the nicest most picturesque villages around Oxford or the most desirable Oxford streets where properties sell or let the quickest. Quite often, it’s the ones that offer the best transport links. There is a reason why one of the most popular property programmes on television is called Location, Location, Location!

As an agent in Oxford, I am frequently confronted with queries about the Oxford property market, and most days I am asked, “What is the best part of Oxford to live in these days?”,.  Now, the answer can be different for each person – a lot depends on individual factors e.g. the age of their family, their age, schooling requirements and interests etc. Nonetheless, one of the principal necessities for most tenants and buyers is ease of access to transport links, including public transport – of which the railways are very important.

Official figures recently released show that, in total, 9,017 people jump on a train each and every day from Oxford Train station. Of those, 2,811 are season ticket holders. That’s a lot of money being spent when a season ticket, standard class, to London is £5,724 a year.

The bottom line is that property values in central Oxford would be much lower, by at least 3% to 4%, if it wasn’t for the proximity of the railway station and the people it allows access north and south of the City

Rail is becoming increasingly important, as the costs associated with car travel continue to rise and as the roads are becoming more and more congested. This has resulted in a huge surge in demand for rail travel.  

Overall usage of the station at Oxford has increased over the last 20 years. In 1997, a total of 3,064,352 people went through the barriers or connected with another train at the station in that 12-month period. However, in 2016, that figure had risen to 6,564,678 people using the station (that’s 18,035 people a day).  Hence the huge investment in capacity at Oxford parkway station where parallel investment in bus routes to/from Oxford has driven house prices in and around Kidlington, meaning that house price growth continues to track above the average for Oxford.

A property’s location relative to the train station has an important effect on its value and saleability in Oxford. It is also significant for tenants – allowing car-free living to be realistic in a City that wishes to limit car usage.

One of the first things house buyers and tenants do when surfing the web for somewhere to live is find out the proximity of a property to the train station. That is why Rightmove displays the distance to the railway station alongside each and every property on their website – they know it is in the top 5 criteria applied by buyers and tenants alike.  To illustrate this, recently a couple came to me looking for a property 5 minutes’ walk from Oxford station and 5 minutes’ walk to the central shops, restaurants and bars.  They wanted 2 bedrooms, one bathroom and wanted to keep the monthly rent to around £1,000.  In the event, they achieved their perfect location, but had to raise their budget by 20%, reflecting the premium that proximity to the stations carries.  They are now living just off St Thomas Street, just a few hundred yards from the Central station.

Mortgage costs fall for Oxford's landlords

Mortgage lenders are progressively seeking to attract new buy to let investors by offering lower cost mortgages, reacting to the Bank of England rate cut, and, most importantly, signalling their continued recognition of the sound investment returns buy to let offers.


Software firm Mortgage Brain says the cost of a five-year fixed buy to let mortgage with a 70 per cent Loan-To-Value is now eight per cent lower than it was in March 2016. It claims that with a current rate of 2.8%, the reduction in cost for this product equates to a potential annualised saving of £738 on a £150,000 mortgage.


The cost of the lowest rate three year fixed BTL mortgage at 2.64% and a two year fixed at 2.89% - both with a 70 per cent LTV - have seen a six per cent reduction in cost since March and offer landlords an annualised saving of £504 and £540 respectively.


Buy to let mortgages with a 60 per cent LTV have also come down in cost over the past six months with a five year fixed down five per cent, a three year fixed down four per cent, and a two year fixed down two per cent since March.


However, the firm says some two year tracker BTL mortgages have increased in cost.


The cost of the lowest rate 80 per cent LTV product at 2.97 per cent, for example, is now 14 per cent higher than it was in March 2016. At 1.8 per cent over two years the cost of a two year tracker with a 60 per cent LTV is now three per cent higher, while the same product with a 70 per cent LTV is now one per cent higher.


With house prices in Oxford continuing to rise, and rents also being reported as up in August, Oxford’s landlords should take advantage of the low interest rates to extend their portfolios.