Oxford new home building rises but is still below National average

Even with Brexit and the fact immigration numbers may now reduce over the coming years, there remains a severe shortage of new housing being built in the Oxford area (and across the UK as a whole).  Even if there are short term confidence trembles fueled by journalists, politicians and others hungry for bad news, the fast growing population of Oxford creates high demand for property creating an imbalance of supply and demand.  The recent Bank of England decision to lower interest rates over the coming 12 to 24 months will only add fuel to the fire.

When the Government was elected in 2015, David Cameron vowed to build 1,000,000 new homes by 2020.  If we as a Country manage to hit those levels, most academics agree that the UK Housing market would re-balance itself as the increased supply of property would give a chance for the younger generation to buy their own home rather than rent.  However, the most recent building figures show that in the first three months of 2016 building starts were down.  Nationally, there were 35,530 house building starts in the first quarter, a long way off the 50,000 a quarter that was targeted.

New building in the Oxford City Council area has grown.  In 2014/15, for every one thousand existing households, an additional 0.72 homes were built, for 2015/16, that figure is 2.49 homes built per thousand existing households (an increase of 246%).  However Nationally, to meet that 1,000,000 new homes target, Oxford needs to be at 7.12 new homes per thousand.

To put those numbers into real chimney pots, over the last 12 months, in the Oxford City Council area,  140 new homes have been built by Private Builders, but none have been built by Housing Association, and none have been built by the Local Authority.

This dismal picture is down to the fact that not enough is being done to fix the broken Oxford housing market.  We are still only seeing 140 new homes being built when we need 400 a year to stand still!

In my opinion, Messer’s Cameron and Osborne focused their attention too much on the demand side of the housing equation, using the Help to Buy scheme and low deposit mortgages to convert the ‘Generation Rent’ into ‘Generation Buy’.  It is now vital that the supply-side is addressed, and I would recommend the new Housing Minster, Gavin Barwell grabs this challenge with some urgency.  This will require transformation of local planning policy, legislation, large-scale release of public land and much greater investment.  We also need to harness the unrivalled collective brain-power and creativity of Oxford to generate the new and inventive solutions needed to create affordable, low carbon homes within the heart of our great City.

Failing to grasp the housing crisis will come at greater cost later on.  What a legacy it would be if it was Mrs. May who finally got to grips with the persistent and enduring shortage of homes in Oxford and across the UK.  The PM has already referenced the ‘need to do far more to get more houses built’ and stop the decline of home ownership.  However, she has also ruled out any changes to the green belt policy.  This should raise alarm bells and persuade Oxford residents and City Councilor’s that housing needs to be higher on its agenda.  More affordable homes are urgently needed in Oxford – both to buy and to rent.  Without them the inexorable increase in average prices and monthly rents seems certain to continue in spite of Brexit and in spite of the Government trying to come down hard to curtail landlord returns when the fault really lies with Housing policy.

For more thoughts and opinion on the Oxford Property Market, please visit the Oxford Property Blog www.oxfordpropertyblog.co.uk

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