Fewer Oford homes are finding buyers below asking price and after longer on the market

The Oxford housing market is struggling-on despite the daily gloom-laden newspaper headlines.  But, many sellers are failing to find a buyer.  Why is that?

The number of completed house sales is down 8% over the last 12 months and this is the second year in succession that the total number of houses sold has fallen.  1.909 properties sold in Oxford over the last 12 months.  Are there fewer buyers? Or are buyers waiting to see if Brexit results in a price crash enabling them to buy more with less?

Normally when supply outstrips demand prices fall.  But, over the last 12 months Oxford prices are reported as being 1% higher than 1 year ago.  Not the spectacular rises Oxford homeowners have come to expect, but not the falling values experienced in London.

So Oxford asking prices have held-up well, and Oxford has resisted negative house prices.  So where is the 'but'?  Well it is pretty hard to find, but I have done some digging and spent a little time researching Land Registry data.  When a house sells and the new buyers register their purchase the Land Registry data is updated confirming the agreed price at which the property sold.  It makes interesting reading.

On average Oxford homes are selling around 3.7% below their asking price.  But, there is a quite wide variation depending on postcode.  The best performing is OX4 with sold properties completing c 2.4% below average asking price, and the worst performing is OX5 with completed sales 4.8% below average asking price.  OX2 is discounted around 3.2%; OX3 3.7% and Ox1 3.8% respectively.

On average across Oxford achieved sales price is £15,600 below asking price with the spread from c£17,600 in OX5 to c£9,000 in OX4.

So the message is clear, whilst asking prices are holding firm, the Oxford home owners who are selling successfully are open to negotiation with the buyer.  With average time on market exceeding 17 weeks, it pays to be savvy!

The question I am asked most frequently is 'Bill, what will happen to Oxford house prices after Brexit?'  To which the only valid answer is 'I don't have a crystal ball!'  But, the fundamental drivers of Oxford's high house prices will not be altered by Brexit - there are virtually no new affordable homes being built in the City, and demand for private rented homes and owner-occupied homes continues to outstrip supply.  Whilst Brexit has reduced demand from outside the UK particularly from people visiting the City to study, domestic demand has largely filled this void, and there are signs that the Oxford has reasserted itself as one of the World's great learning centres with foreign students returning to the housing market when compared to 2017/18.

It seems certain that we are set for political and economic turbulence over the coming 6 months, but in the medium to long-term Oxford will remain a great place to live, work and invest.