County at 'tipping point' as nearly 200,000 people predicted to live in Oxfordshire by 2030

The following article is a cut and paste from the Oxford Times and is written by Georgina Campbell.  I've taken the unusual decision to re-post the article here as I feel it raises a number of interesting factors that show how housing policy (or lack thereof) is and will continue to hamper the Oxford's and the Counties future wealth.  I feel that Georgina has captured and presented some of the fundamental issues that our Civic and County leaders must address to ensure that the City remains the attractive, multi-talented, multi-cultural and vibrant Cities in the UK. Housing policy is not just a matter of building more affordable homes (although that is a critical component), it is also about recognising demographic shifts and providing suitable housing, enabling family homes to be freed-up for growing families by providing older residents suitable and attractive down-sizing options.

The article reads:

OXFORDSHIRE’s growing and ageing population is at 'tipping point' with nearly 200,000 extra people predicted in the county by 2030, public health bosses warn. 

The county’s director of public health, Dr Jonathan McWilliam, said the way services are run needs to change to prevent a crisis in people’s access to health and social care. 

Predictions for the next 15 years show the number of people over the age of 65 will increase by 53 per cent and those over the age of 85 will increase by 96 per cent. 

And although the fact that people are living longer 'should be shouted from the rooftops', Dr McWilliam hopes his independent report will be the catalyst for change in the provision of services. 

He said: "The biggest challenge is the increase in the number of people in the county and the number of people that will be here in the years to come. 

"This issue has been with us for the last decade. 

"The problem is this creeps up on us, it happens in slow motion and we do not take notice until we reach this tipping point where older services need to be replaced with new ones." 

The tenth annual public health report predicts an additional 183,900 residents will be in the county by 2030. 

And the challenge of managing a growing population is made even harder by a raft of other problems, he warns. 

Crippling house prices are affecting recruitment in health and social care - a problem which needs to be addressed to cope with the growing demand. 

Dr McWilliam said: "It is becoming increasingly difficult to recruit the staff we need to fill nursing, caring and ancillary posts. 

"In the last few weeks I attended meetings where the hospital and social care services were spelling this out very clearly. 

"Some hospital wards are for example reported to be running with 25 per cent vacancies." 

Oxford is the least affordable city with house prices being 16.7 times higher than annual earnings, on a par with London, and bosses warn they might need to look beyond the county to towns like High Wycombe to find enough affordable for housing for the influx of extra workers. 

Dr McWilliam added: “Other options such as building hostels for workers are also being explored. 

"We have identified the problem, we have reached a tipping point and we have to work together to find a solution, even if we do not know exactly what that solution is yet." 

Some developments for key worker housing have been proposed, such as 83 homes at William Morris Close in Temple Cowley (see more on the development in page 4), but many more would be needed to cope with the extra demand. 

Dr McWilliam is also calling for more joined-up thinking in housing developments, stating that the focus needs to be on how people can live a healthier life in their community. 

He added: "The key message is: health is planning and planning is health. 

"Of course every development is different, some are large and some are small. 

"But there are some basic principals in terms of dementia-friendly streets, cycle and pedestrian lanes that can be carried through all new developments." 

In order to tackle the 'whole raft of issues' Dr McWilliam is calling for central government, organisations and residents themselves to come together and work towards an overhaul in the way services are provided. 

He added: "We have never been in this situation before, which is why we do not have all the solutions to hand right away. 

"But I think we have time for organisations to find out what they need to do, we are recognising and reacting to that tipping point.

Oxford house price inflation loses momentum

House price inflation in Oxford, like other big southern cities in the UK, has seen growth slip from double to single digits. London has reached its lowest level for five years,

The latest Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index revealed growth in London has dropped to 3.5%, a slowdown from the 13% registered in April 2016, giving an average value of £489,400.
Bristol, Cambridge and Oxford, previously top performers, have also seen price inflation slip into single figures, while in contrast the Midlands and northern England are topping the charts.

The average house price in Oxford over the last 12 months is now £407,248.  There have been 3,148 sales transactions over the same period which is 15% down on the same period 12 months earlier.

In comparison, Manchester recorded price growth of 8.4% during April where average prices were £155,000, followed by growth of 7.7% in both Leicester and Birmingham where values are at £164,600 and £152,100 respectively.

Across the top 20 UK cities, price growth has slowed in the past 12 months from 8.7% to 5.3%, with average prices at £247,400.

What is the ideal ration of bedrooms to bathrooms?

The following article was published by Property Industry Eye.

I thought the following article might interest Oxford Property Blog readers.  I will publish an article later this week on a trend I believe to be important in Oxford - a developing trend for young families for rented family houses.  The article below provides home owners and landlords with an interesting input to decisions about property configuration to appeal to that market.

Direct Line surveyed 100 estate agents across ten of the UK’s biggest cities, concluding that a three-bed home would ideally have an average of 1.8 bathrooms, a four-bed would have 2.6 and a five-bed property would have 3.5.

Almost three-quarters (70%) of estate agents, believed a three-bedroom home should have two or more bathrooms, while 95% said a four or five bedroom property needs to have more than one bathroom, and 43% said a five-bedroom property should have at least three bathrooms.
The research includes estimates from estate agents that an extra bathroom would add 6.8% to the value of a standard three-bed property and 6.2% on to a four-bed.

Using the Hometrack UK Cities House Price Index average value of £208,200, the insurer concludes an extra bathroom could add £12,000 on to a three-bedroom property.

Rebecca Clapham, head of household products at Direct Line, said: “With space in such short supply in homes across the country and the cost of moving sky high, it is interesting to find out directly from the experts what home owners can do to add value to their property.

“A new bathroom can add around £12,000 to the value of a home, which compared to the cost of fitting one, is a significant return and may be a good option for people wishing to improve their home but without the space to add an extra bedroom or improve their kitchen.”

However, the analysis doesn’t seem to acknowledge how changing a bedroom into a bathroom could actually impact a property’s value, so EYE asked some agents.

Aaron Cambden, owner of Nottingham-based Fairview Estates, said: “Bedrooms remain the key focus and are more valuable than an additional bathroom, until you’re looking at property with four or more bedrooms; at this point, extra bathrooms do start to become a more important factor.”
Brendan Roberts, director at London agents Aylesford International, added: “In central London where values are high there is a commensurate expectation that a flat with two bedrooms has two bathrooms, three beds has at least two bathrooms, four beds at least two and preferably three baths, or even four.

“The higher up the price ranges you go, the higher the expectation in both specification and finishes and in the number and luxury of bathrooms, with every bedroom enjoying its own bathroom at the very high end.

“Occasionally, we see something referred to as a Jack ‘n’ Jill bathroom where one bathroom is en suite to two adjoining bedrooms with two doors – one giving access to each of the two adjoining bedrooms. This is quite acceptable, particularly on large family houses.

“I would not encourage anyone to ‘lose a bedroom’, which in most cases would reduce value, but occasionally a flat that hasn’t been modernised for many years may have three beds and only one bath, or is missing an en suite, in which case it might work to change to a two-bed, two-bath layout.”

House Prices in Oxford rise by more than 18% in the last 18 months

Over the last six weeks, property values in the Oxford City Council area rose by 6.2%, to leave annual price growth also at 6.2%. These rises compare well to the national figures where property prices across the UK saw an uplift of 0.42%, meaning the annual property values across the Country are 8.3% higher.

Looking at the figures for the last 18 months shows Oxford house prices are 18.1% higher, compared to the national average figure of 13.6% higher.  Over the last 18 months, in the Oxford City Council area, the best performing type of property was the semi, which outperformed the area average by 0.78% whilst the worst performing type was the apartment, which under-performed the area average by 1.42%.

That difference doesn’t sound that much, but remember two things, this is only over eighteen months and the ‘spread’ of 2.2% (the difference between the semi at +0.78% and apartments at -1.42%) converts into a few thousand pounds disparity, when you consider the average price paid for a semi-detached property in Oxford itself over the last 12 months was £480,000 and the average price paid for an Oxford apartment was £310,000 over the same time frame.

So how has each property types performed? Over the last 18 months in Oxford:

·       Overall Average:          +18.1%

·       Detached:                      +18.1%

·       Semi Detached:            +19.0%

·       Terraced:                       +18.6%

·       Apartments:                  +16.4%

When I looked at the month-by-month figures for the area, you can quite clearly see there is a slight tempering of the Oxford property market over these last few months. I have mentioned in previous articles that the number of properties on the market in Oxford has increased this summer, something that hasn’t happened since 2008. Greater choice for buyers usually means that top prices won’t be achieved on every Oxford property. You see, some of that growth in Oxford property values throughout early 2016 may have come about because of a surge in house purchase activity, an indirect result of the increase in stamp duty on second homes from April, thus providing a temporary boost to prices.

Overall, I believe that sellers need to pull out the stops to ‘dress’ their house for sale, to ensure that it is presented as strongly as possible in a more competitive market.  To help I recently published an eBook ‘The Ultimate Guide To Sell Your Home – How to sell quicker for more in Oxford.