Post Brexit - Oxford Property Prices set to drop £39,900 in the next 12 months?

Even the UK’s biggest optimist has to admit the Brexit vote will, in one shape or another, affect the UK Property market. Excluding central London which may benefit from increased foreign investment, most commentators are saying prices will be adversely affected by around 10%. So, based on the commentators’ thoughts, property values in Oxford will be 10% lower than they would have been if we hadn’t voted to leave the EU.  Given that Oxford voted overwhelmingly ‘remain’ these seems a particularly bitter pill to swallow.

As the average value of a property in the Oxford City Council area is £399,000, this means property values are set to drop for the average Oxford property by £39,900 … batten down the hatches, cancel the Christmas turkey, soup kitchens and mega recession here we come! It’s going to get rough.

... but before we all go into panic mode let’s remember the devil is always in the detail

Look at the phrase again, and I have highlighted the relevant part “Property values in Oxford will be 10% lower than they would have been if we hadn’t voted to leave the EU”

Property values today, according to the Land Registry are 10.43% higher than a year ago in the Oxford City Council area. The 12 months before that they rose by 14.68% and the 12 months before that, they rose by 9.36%. If we hadn’t voted to leave, I believe based on this trend data, we could have safely assumed Oxford house prices would have been 11% higher by the Summer of 2017. And, that’s the point, we won’t see a house price crash in Oxford, it’s just that house prices in a year’s time may only be 1% higher than they are now (ie 11% less the 10% lower figure because of Brexit). Let’s look at the historic figures and how that compares to today’s figures for the Oxford City Council area and Oxford as a whole.

 

I believe the average value of an Oxford property will, at the worst case, be £4,000 higher in 12 months’ time than today.

That’s not to say Oxford property prices might not dip slightly in the run up to Christmas (in fact they have done just about every year since the year 2000 and most of those were boom years) but in 12 months’ time this is my considered opinion of where Oxford property values will be.  Looking at the historic prices, even if I (and many other property market commentators) am wrong and they drop 10% from TODAY’S figure, in the grand scheme of things, we have been through a Credit Crunch, Black Monday and 15% interest rates over the last 20 to 30 years, and still Oxford house prices have offered a healthy return on investment.  Oxford will take Brexit in its stride!

What about Oxford landlords? They have recently been thrashed by Osborne’s tax changes, but yields could yet rise marginally if Oxford house prices stagnate and rents continue to grow.  If prices were to level or come down that could help landlords to add to their portfolio, and they would be wise to do so given that rental demand for Oxford property is expected to stay strong